ANTIESTABLISHMENTARIAN

I started keeping a record of total listings at Yachtworld in December ‘07 when it was 114,209. Today it is up to 123,000 and change which is not as high as it was following the dotcom/tech bust at 124,000. That produced a barely detectable recession, yet this time around our situation if far, far worse, though the full effects of the collapse of the banking/financial system has only begun to be felt.

This also suggests that much of the pain has yet to work its way up to the big money boyz and their toyz. Frankly, I don’t know what yachtworld’s listing capacity is but its probably much more. OTOH, the brokers capacity for accepting listings probably isn’t. Even so, I would expect when the real pain is felt we should see listings up at least another 25% to 50%.

Prices on most mid size and larger yachts remains unrealistic and few, very few are moving. And yet sellers don’t drop prices. This is probably due to the fact that the vast majority are mortgaged and the unpaid balance controls the asking price. As we go into the second year of this crisis, it would seem likely that many of those who try to wait it out, hoping against hope for a recovery, will either go bust or take the loss by lowering the price to liquidate at any cost. I have to admit that it surprises me that so many have the legs to hang on for so long.

Falling oil price likely holds out false hope for some.

National Liquidators auction is up to 400 boats this week. Bob Toney tells me they are not at their limit. He’ll just rent more space to accomodate more repos.

Brunswick and Marinemax running into trouble. This headline from AP

Debt covenants at risk for Brunswick, MarineMax
Monday October 13, 4:05 pm ET

Analyst: Brunswick, MarineMax risk violating debt covenants as boat sales continue to plunge

This means that these companies violated the terms of their loan agreements. How, the article didn’t say. Neither has much longer before going the chapter 11 route, but chapter 7 is more appropriate: Total liquidation. They have no future whatsoever, but I’m sure they haven’t figured that out yet.